The world is undergoing a complex process of restructuring of all previously existing strategic realities. A recent forecast of the US-Israeli analytic center STRATFOR (Strategic Forecasting) observed: "In 2010, Russia will eliminate the bulk of what remains of the influence of West and Turkey in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia and Azerbaijan, and will attempt to lay the foundations for re-creation of a political union on a large part of the post-Soviet space. As said the expert Andrew J. Bacevich from «Boston Review», «Americans wrongly perceive the world and their role in determining its evolution". The famous American Russophobe Zbigniew Brzezinski, speaking about the catastrophic for the U.S. Israel's attacks on Iran, suddenly, as if by accident "makes a slip" and instead of "Russia" says "the Soviet Union". We will note also disturbing discourse of American expert Robert Morley in «The Trumpet», who draws attention to the fact that on December 28 "...Vladimir Putin pushed a button and it changed the dynamics of the global oil trade - particularly in Asia and Europe" (meaning commissioning of a new strategic terminal on the shore of the Japan Sea in Kozmino and the completion of the new pipeline and port complex).
Precariousness of the situation is well felt in Turkey. If someone thinks that the demarche of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan against Israelis in connection with their operation Cast Lead in the Gaza Strip was only part of the domestic political game or some kind of collusion with Tel Aviv and Washington, than such a perception of facts is unjustified oversimplification. If anyone thought that the Turks would start competing with Iran for influence in the Muslim world (by agreement with the U.S. and Israel), this version is of higher order, but also do not fully reflect the true state of affairs. In the end, the Kurdish intifada is a fact like that it is mainly developed in the towns and villages located near the border of Turkey with Transcaucasus, Iraq, Syria and Iran. And the Turks know very well who really now subtly directs the Kurds, "consuling" them, etc. Is it because of this on Jan. 21 the Turks were quick to host in Ankara, Iranian Defense Minister General Ahmad Vahidi and firmly assured him that Turkey would "never support a single issue that would be against the interests of Iran"?
Note that the visit of Defense Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran was occasioned by Tehran's desire to understand what was truthful in the talks discussed by various media that the U.S. seeks to place in Turkey some part of its missile defense system. And is it not because of this already on January 29 the sources in the Turkish ruling moderately Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP), said that Tel Aviv at its base in Ankara organized the station to listen and observe, and the devices, placed at the station, could cover the territory of Iran and Syria? According to Israeli journalists, the most secret information in the field of Turkish-Israeli military cooperation, guarded carefully for many years, "suddenly" surfaced in press at "the instigation" of AKP.
DEBKA file with reference to the publications of the website WAQAT argues that the history with technical details and enumeration of the actions by the Israeli intelligence in the territory of Turkey was made public. According to the experts of DEBKA file, data of this level could appear in the media only with tacit consent of the head of the ruling party. The sources in the party said that "a leak" was a peculiar response to the arrival of Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who visited Turkey on January 17. Of course, one should not write off the situation surrounding the diplomatic scandal between Ankara and Tel Aviv, flared up in recent months, especially in January, and "smoldering" fire of mutual claims. But it is noticeable that the Turks have taken a trick - just delivered its allies up. And since this happened after the visit of Iranian Minister of Defense in Ankara, the conclusion is: this is the price demanded by Tehran from Turkey. Instead, say, of a promise not to cause counter-attacks on Turkish territory, if anti-Iranian military activities break out in the region.
So it is not for nothing on January 14 the Jews in Turkey sounded the alarm. The head of the Jewish community Silvio Ovadia warned that the conflict between Tel Aviv and Ankara could lead to a surge of anti-Semitism in the country. He called to resolve differences between the two countries, not fanning tensions, referring to a diplomatic crisis that arose as a result of anti-Israel statements of Erdoğan and the response of Israel. Turkish Jews, let's agree, see better from inside than any highly professional secret service agents to the United States and Israel.
And now let us deviate from the "pure politics" and look at energy supply. Opening of the pipeline Dauletabad-Sarahs-Handzhiran, held on December 20, 2009, remained unnoticed by Western media, proclaiming "the apocalypse for the Islamic regime in Tehran". Meanwhile, this event is of paramount importance for regional security. Within three weeks Turkmenistan has been directing all of its gas exports toward Iran, China and Russia. Indian expert M.K. Bhadrakumar wrote on January 25: "Now there is no need for gas pipelines, advanced by the U.S. and the EU. Do we hear the first notes of Russo-Iranian-Chinese symphony?". Indeed, if you look to the last detail, this 182-kilometer pipeline, modestly starting with a throughput of 8 billion cubic meters of gas, in the future is focused on increasing its capacity in 2-3 years to 20 billion cubic meters, what fully meet the needs in blue fuel of the Caspian region of Iran and allow the Iranians to fully transfer the South Pars gas fields for export. Mutual interest is obvious: Turkmenistan receives a guaranteed market for export; northern Iran can be not afraid of winter shutdowns of gas; Tehran gets more opportunities for gas exports; Turkmenistan is able to export its gas through Iran; Iran will be able to extract all the dividends from its favorable geographical location.
"We are witnessing the emergence of a regional energy community on a new level, - went on the Indian expert. - Russia, Iran and Turkmenistan occupy, respectively, the first, second and fourth place by gas reserves. And China will be the main consumer of energy in this century. It has long-term implications for American strategy. Turkmen-Iranian gas pipeline shatters all the Iranian strategy of Washington. Americans threaten Iran with new sanctions and declare that Iran is increasingly isolated. However, Ahmadinejad's presidential plane in the Central Asian tour takes a course in Ashgabat, where a carpet is spread out before it. At the talks of Ahmadinejad with Turkmen President is formalized a new axis. American diplomacy, acting on the principle of "divide and rule" no longer works. Turkmenistan, with GDP of 18.3 billion dollars challenges the superpower with GDP of 14.3 trillion and makes it swallow the abasement in silence".
But there are indirect effects. Tehran claims the implementation of the Iran-Turkey deal to transport Iranian gas to Turkey through a pipeline of 2.577 km length, connecting Iranian Tabriz to Ankara. In fact, Turkish diplomacy translates increasingly independent foreign policy orientation of the country. Turkey more seeks to mediate in energy supplies for Europe. The EU may lose independent access to oil and gas resources of the Caspian Sea.
In these circumstances, Russia, as it appears, is not very concerned about China's progress in moving toward energy resources of Central Asia. The need of Europe of energy imports from Russia increases as takes place reorientation of oil and gas supplies from Central Asia to China.
During his recent visit to Ashgabat, President Dmitry Medvedev normalized Russo-Turkmen energy relations. Restoration of these links was a big breakthrough for both countries. Contrary to what is said by Western propaganda, Ashgabat does not consider China's pipeline a replacement to Gazprom. Russia pricing policy leads to the fact that the Turkmens believe Gazprom an indispensable client. Export price of Turkmen gas, which China will buy, has not yet been agreed upon, but in any case, it will be below the level, offered by Russia. In addition, Russia and Turkmenistan reiterated their commitment to the Caspian pipeline that goes along the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea in the direction of Russia with a capacity of 30 billion cubic meters of gas. With its help Russia hopes to "pick up" the excess of Turkmen gas, and natural gas from Kazakhstan. Finally, Moscow and Ashgabat agreed on joint construction of a west-east pipeline, which unites in a single network all gas fields in Turkmenistan. Thus, the pipelines, leading to Russia, Iran and China, can be combined into a single power supply system.
Thus, the American energy diplomacy, which for many years upheld in the region three goals: to build gas and oil pipelines bypassing Russia, to divert energy flows from China and isolate Iran, has failed. Russia now plans to double its purchases of Azerbaijani gas, what would nullify the plans to connect Azerbaijan to "Nabucco".
The picture is completed by the fact that preparations for the construction of two gas pipelines from Russia - "Nord Stream" and "South Stream", designed, respectively, for the supply of gas in the northern and southern Europe, came to the irreversible stage. Undoubtedly, the Nord Stream will have a profound impact on the geopolitics of Eurasia, transatlantic relations and ties between Russia and Europe.
What does all this mean for the Transcaucasus and the Caucasus as a whole? Nothing monosyllabic and unambiguous - there is almost utter geopolitical fog. Yes, sound "the first notes" of a symphony or even a possible anthem of the future world order. Two of three giants, called in January by foreign experts the new arbiters in world energy, border with us - Russia and Iran. But it is a long way from "the first notes" to the end of "symphony". And the audience must be prepared to listen to the whole geo-political tone to the end. |
FACT
